🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.